Friday, May 2, 2008

Kentucky Derby: Fortune at the Crapshoot

Remember at the end of the movie Far & Away when all of the land prospectors are lining up for the gunshot start to claim their land. Nobody knows what’s going to happen except everybody will be running fast with a mob mentality. That’s this year’s Kentucky Derby.

Stocked with a full card of 20 horses, all of equal volition, the derby is a crapshoot and dangerous for prospectors (handicappers). Which means big money!

There will be plenty of value in the starting gates in a race where anything can happen. My advice is to find a horse you believe can win and bet big on him. Stay away from the exotics.

Here’s who I have my good eye on. (If you ever wondered what I meant by my good eye, see any picture of Christopher “Big Black” Boykin. He has the definition of a good and bad eye).

To win the Kentucky Derby you need to have hit a 100 beyer figure. That knocks down the field to 7 horses. Of those 7, one is a filly, another was from a sprint race, one only hit hundos as a 2 year old and another made a susceptible 80-102 point leap. Of the more legitimate 100s, two are in the 19 and 20 posts.

That leaves us with one Ben Franklin firing horse: Z Fortune.

Z Fortune has had a difficult time securing a spot in the derby. Every race he has had to battle 3,4 or 5 wide. Now, he has scored one of the prime post position (6-9 gates) and may have the necessary momentum after the gallant second place finish at the Arkansas Derby to squeak out a victory. The only problem is that he doesn’t have a Kentucky Derby winning name.

In a perfect world, I would be eating up some Gayego on Saturday, but the 19 post is a killer. The same could be said for Big Brown in the 20, but I cannot overlook the fact that he has only raced three times and the last time five weeks ago.

(I searched ego waffle, not Gayego, for this picture)

Do not forget Pyro. Pyro did exactly what I wanted him to do. Stink up the joint on his last prep. I’m still Davy Jones, a believer, of Pyro, and the Bluegrass only helped his odds. This horse has been gunning and preparing for the derby the entire 3 year old season. The Bluegrass was nothing to him. Plus, if Pyro and Z Fortune go one and two, we would have an Assman exacta

Remember to gamble kids! Post time is 6:04 p.m.

1 comment:

Ariel said...

I think the Dunbars and McCormacks need to start planning a trip to the mecca, to meet up with Rev and the gang. 2009? 2010? We're game.