In preparation, I have studied the Past Performances over and over, sober and the opposite of sober.
The Kentucky Derby is the most difficult race to handicap. The shear volume of horses (20), the fact they are 3-year olds, never gone the distance and some going from synthetic to a dirt surface adds nuances that would cripple Stephen Hawking.
The best way to attack the derby is to divide and conquer.
Divide (into contenders)
- I Want Revenge: will be the favorite, but can erratic jockey put it all together in the stampede?
- Dunkirk: impressive, only three starts all this year
- Friesan Fire: quality horse, faced tough competition, long layoff, good poll position.
- Pioneer of the Nile: hasn't posted 100 Beyer figure, coming out of synthetic Santa Anita
- Papa Clem: held his own against tough competition, poor workouts leave concerns
- Musket Man: questionable competition, but a winner
- General Quarters: sentimental favorite, a fighter but streaky
- Regal Ransom: could set the pace, but top tiers should be able to stalk
Conquer (Betting Strategy)
In the Kentucky Derby, the favorite should still have decent odds to win some cash. The conservative bet would be I Want Revenge to win. He has the talent to sweet talk this one into bed.
My sleeper horse is Papa Clem. He may be a mid-sleeper when betting is finished, but he's on an upward trajectory like Lady Gaga . Both could have glorious failures though.
I would advise against betting exotics in the Kentucky Derby, but it's the Kentucky Derby so endulge like you are on a boat. I would trifecta box I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Fresian Fire.
Ultimate pick. The Louisville Courier-Journal's headline will read on Sunday: Dunkirk Dun Kicked Their Ass.
(Follow me live at the Derby on twitter trying to steal Hank Goldberg's piggy bank @HHReynolds)
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