Thursday, October 23, 2008

CR Dunbar: Breeders' Cup - Juveniles are on the Clock

The Breeders' Cup Juvenile is the main stage for prospective Kentucky Derby contenders. In a sense, it is like the lottery picks in the NBA Draft. You have the top prospects, but only a few of them will make it. The winner/first pick rarely succeeds in the Derby/NBA. On racing night/draft night you are taking a shot with them, but in the end they are highly priced and will likely disappoint you. Inevitably, along the way you will see a few stars, a majority will burnout, be injury prone or shot. But because of the rules and excitement, you need to play the game and gamble on them.

David Stern with Square Eddie.

Comparing this year's runners with the 2006 NBA Draft (gives us a little more knowledge), this is what I see:
  • Square Eddie - LaMarcus Aldridge, the sure thing
  • Bushranger - Andrea Bargnani, foreign player you are curious about and will take a shot on, but probably not the first pick this time
  • Midshipman - Brandon Roy, going to be a star and you knew it, but he dropped on the board
  • Mine That Bird - J.J. Redick, decent, but outclassed
  • Street Hero - Rudy Gay, know he is going to perform, but you let him slip because you wanted to go for the other's upside
  • Elusive Bluff - Tyrus Thomas, just out of college and want to take a shot at a franchise player
  • Terrain - Adam Morrison, had a good tournament, but can he make the leap?
My Plays:
  • Midshipman to win.
  • Combinations of exacta boxes with Midshipman, Square Eddie, Terrain and Street Hero.

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