Friday, November 6, 2009

CR Dunbar's Breeders' Cup Picks

I've plowed through articles and videos all week to prepare for the richest day in horse racing only to come out five pounds lighter and scrambling for more information.

As promised, here is my dirty south synopsis of some of my favorite races for the Breeders' Cup: Juvenile, Sprint and Classic.

Juvenile

I always enjoy studying the Juvenile race because it is your first opportunity to look at potential Kentucky Derby contenders. However, I don't necessarily enjoy betting on the race because it can quickly become a crapshoot.

This year the favorite will be hometown plodder Lookin at Lucky. He is being knocked for his slow speed figures, but definitely has a home court advantage running on the idiotic pro-ride surface.

Me, I am lookin to beat Lucky. I have my bionic eye focused on Noble's Promise. He has both synthetic and turf experience with a victory last time out going two turns.

I might also save a few pence for the European Radiohead. Maybe it is just because Pandora thinks my favorite song in the world is Creep, but Radiohead is giving me the bends.

Strategy: Pick a horse other than Lookin at Lucky, bet big and cross your fingers.

Sprint

If I ever make a career change into the horse world, I would want to focus strictly on sprint horses. Not much strategy, just go out there and run Forrest run.


Two horse this year are the clear favorites: Zensational and Fatal Bullet. Both prefer to get out on the lead and stay there which makes a handicapper cautious. Usually a duel out front leaves it wide open for a closer.

However, I think Fatal Bullet can outduel Zensational and take this.

If you want to go with a closer, it is a tossup between Gayego and Capt. Candyman Can. I keep switching between the two. I have triple C circled, but it looks like Gayego has been training well.

Strategy: Trifecta box with Fatal Bullet, Gayego, Capt. Candyman Can and Zensational

Classic

Once again, the faux dirt surface is the lead story. It has kept out the best horses, filled the field with turf horses and makes you throw out the best dirt horses that are actually running.

I have to agree with Public Enemy here and say don't believe the hype with Zenyatta. The filly hasn't seen competition like this before.


I really wanted to go with Rip Van Winkle here. One, because he has a dutch name, but probably more importantly because he was the best horse. But, I am very concerned about his foot ailment.

So, I am going with a turn of the foot and picking Richard's Kid. I think he fits well at this distance and from what they are telling me, he is training well up to the big race.

I also keeping my eye on Einstein, he always seems to hit the board.

Strategy: Exacta box the balls out of the race. I will go with Richard's Kid, Summer Bird and Einstein and pray it shakes out.


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