Kentucky Derby: Fortune at the Crapshoot

Remember at the end of the movie Far & Away when all of the land prospectors are lining up for the gunshot start to claim their land. Nobody knows what’s going to happen except everybody will be running fast with a mob mentality. That’s this year’s Kentucky Derby.

Stocked with a full card of 20 horses, all of equal volition, the derby is a crapshoot and dangerous for prospectors (handicappers). Which means big money!

There will be plenty of value in the starting gates in a race where anything can happen. My advice is to find a horse you believe can win and bet big on him. Stay away from the exotics.

Here’s who I have my good eye on. (If you ever wondered what I meant by my good eye, see any picture of Christopher “Big Black” Boykin. He has the definition of a good and bad eye).

To win the Kentucky Derby you need to have hit a 100 beyer figure. That knocks down the field to 7 horses. Of those 7, one is a filly, another was from a sprint race, one only hit hundos as a 2 year old and another made a susceptible 80-102 point leap. Of the more legitimate 100s, two are in the 19 and 20 posts.

That leaves us with one Ben Franklin firing horse: Z Fortune.

Z Fortune has had a difficult time securing a spot in the derby. Every race he has had to battle 3,4 or 5 wide. Now, he has scored one of the prime post position (6-9 gates) and may have the necessary momentum after the gallant second place finish at the Arkansas Derby to squeak out a victory. The only problem is that he doesn’t have a Kentucky Derby winning name.

In a perfect world, I would be eating up some Gayego on Saturday, but the 19 post is a killer. The same could be said for Big Brown in the 20, but I cannot overlook the fact that he has only raced three times and the last time five weeks ago.

(I searched ego waffle, not Gayego, for this picture)

Do not forget Pyro. Pyro did exactly what I wanted him to do. Stink up the joint on his last prep. I’m still Davy Jones, a believer, of Pyro, and the Bluegrass only helped his odds. This horse has been gunning and preparing for the derby the entire 3 year old season. The Bluegrass was nothing to him. Plus, if Pyro and Z Fortune go one and two, we would have an Assman exacta

Remember to gamble kids! Post time is 6:04 p.m.

Blue Grass Stakes: Who Wants It

In high school, our inspiring cheerleaders, that may or may not have included Lady Dunbar, had a cheer that went, “You got to want it to win it, and we want it more.” It was catchy as it continues to guide my life in everything I do. I will dominate you.

Any who, this weekend’s foreign automobile Blue Grass Stakes incorporates those that want it to move on to the grand enchilada and those who are in it for the practice. This makes it difficult to handicap.

Pyro, who readers know I have watched with utmost interest, is merely in it to prep for the derby in three weeks. The same could be said for Cool Coal Man who just needs a good showing to get the earnings to qualify.

(This pyro keeps me up at night)

The pipe dream crew includes Kentucky Bear, Stevil, Stone Bird, Medjool and Miner’s Claim who are grasping for a break to break the bank for chance at the big show.

That leaves a series of horses that have a shot to bring home the bacon if they get a nice trip. Unfortunately, Visionare and Halo Najib are starting from the 12 and 11 post, and Monba is too shaky for my money.

The two horses that I have my good eye on are Big Truck and Cowboy Cal. Big Truck is progressing and has the 6 post. He could stalk a position and hit the burners to pull this out. Cowboy Cal comes off the turf to try polytrack. I’m hesitant, but he has early speed, which this group lacks and fires consistently in the 90s for speed figures. He could be a good pick with long odds.

If I am able to get to the track tomorrow, I’m betting exactas with a mixture of Cool Coal Man, Pyro, Big Truck and Cowboy Cal.

Down on the Bayou

This weekend's Louisiana Derby is some spicy gumbo.

The Grade II derby prep has more meat than a Mardi Gras Bourbon Street crowd under a balcony.

The likely favorite is no other than Pyro whose closing style will provide the heat from the bottom, frying the minds of the competition.

Two highly touted youngins are making their three year old debeuxes. Tale of Ekati and Majestic Warrior were prized sausages in the two year old field. They will now need to prove they have the flavor to handle the heat from contenders like Pyro.

Watch out for J Be K who will have a taste of the lead. If he is given too much, he could overpower the rest of the ingredients.

I've never seen a blackberry in a gumbo, but Blackberry Road adds some tang to this recipe. He needs to shake off a poor performance in the Risen Star and try to close with Pyro.

Adding flavor will be Yankee Bravo and My Pal Charlie, who may find themselves sitting there like a okra in the heat.

The race will act as a colander for the derby by sifting out the show ponies from the big shellfish. If I were a betting man (this weekend), I would bet a Pyro/Tale of Ekati exacta. If I were a crazy Cajun, I would bet J Be K to win.

Pyro Burning Down the House

While Ren and Willard whine about the loss of football, lack of baseball and yearn for a bowling surge, they blindly missed that the horse racing season has roared out of the starting gate.

The early Kentucky Derby preps have begun, and I have a slight tingling in my loins.

My “preseason” favorite Pyro made a Nell Carter cannonball splash in the Risen Star Stakes. Do yourself a solid and watch the replay. Kyra Sedgwick could learn a thing or two from this closer.

(www.imdb.com)

Pyro is trained by the Assman, the deserved trainer of the year (damn you Pletcher!), and workmate to the 2007 Horse of the Year Curlin. He has been the garfunkel to the undefeated War Pass who dominated the 2-year old scene.

Now as a 3-year old, Pyro took a step forward and will surely garner more attention as the derby approaches. Plus, he has the same name as an X-Men, how can you go wrong?

The derby prep season is young and many flavors of the week will have their time in the sun. HHR will be here to keep you abreast of the contenders so that you can win some cheddar on the first Saturday of May.

(www.marvel.com)