Dunbar the Dutch: NFL Wildcard Picks

After watching Jimmy the Greek on ESPN last night instead of Texas' Gilbert trying to throw a football, I am in the gambling spirit.

If I or a co-worker named Nick Papageorgio were headed to Vegas this weekend for the NFL Wildcard games, these may (or may not) be the games I put money on without Lady Dunbar knowing.

• Dallas over Philly - the D has their number this year and have the answer to DeShaun Jackson or is it DaSheawn (this prediction may not be shared by other writers on the HHR staff)
• Green Bay over Arizona - after watching NFC North games all season, I know GB is tough and Rodgers can whip the ball. Arizona seems as soft and gooey as Kurt Warner's 38 year-old grocery clerk gut this season.
• Bengals over Jets - Jets have played garbage over the last few weeks, time for the Bengals to lockdown and test the Jets' run defense with emotions running higher than, well, the Bengal's locker room.
• Ravens over the Pats - I've watched plenty of Baltimore games this year, they're my 2010 team as I need to find another team to enjoy while being a Lions fan. The Welker injury hurts, and Baltimore has played tough competition all season with bounces that, if gone their way, they would have a bye this week. Look for the upset especially with the spread. Can't pick Pats because they are the Pats anymore.

One of the great weekends in sports. Who knows, I may be able to stay awake for the entire 8 pm Saturday game. But history indicates that I will fall asleep on the couch while holding a glass of scotch on my belly.

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Rev Picks Em: Week 10

WEST VIRGINIA (-3 1/2) at Connecticut: What gives with these two? West Virginia started the year ranked highly, then lost to ECU and Colorado, and now seem to be rolling again after trouncing a faltering Auburn team last week in Morgantown. UConn is much the same way – after climbing into the top 25, they dropped some clunkers against Rutgers and UNC. I think WV QB Pat White is the best player on both teams and he has proven time and again to be a game breaker - I’ll be a front-runner here and stick by the Mountaineers.

MIAMI (+2) at Virginia: Both teams are 5-3 and angling for position in a suddenly crowded ACC Coastal Division. Virginia is scoring just 17.8 points per game and they’re giving up 22.3 points to their opponents, yet somehow they have won 4 in a row. As Dubya would say, that’s fuzzy math that can’t possibly hold up. I like Miami’s ability to score (39 ppg) and I like the fact their getting points here. I’m going with the ‘Canes.

AIRFORCE (-8) at Army: Army football hasn’t been good in a long, long time. Go with Air Force and lay the points.

Pittsburgh at NOTRE DAME (-4 1/2): This game is tailor made for the ‘Stache to lose. Outside of playing spoiler against West Virginia last year, Pittsburgh has a tendency to lose big games like this. It’s not that I’m so impressed with Notre Dame, it’s just that I would be scared to death to actually wager that Dave Wannstedt could win a game that matters.


#23 OREGON (+3) at California: Cal has had their share of problems with high-powered offenses (see their 42-27 loss at Arizona). That’s not so great for the Bears considering the Ducks are scoring 41.5 points per game. Give me the Ducks and the points.

Iowa at ILLINOIS (-2 1/2): The Big Ten season ended last week with Penn State winning at Ohio State. If you’re betting this game you either a) attended one of these schools, b) have been a lifelong fan for one team or the other, or c) you are a hard-core gambling addict that needs help.

Tennessee at SOUTH CAROLINA (-5 1/2): The orange apocalypse is soon to come for UT coach Phil Fulmer. Things are real bad right now in Knoxville – they played competitively in spurts last week against Alabama, but overall the Vols just looked to be outclassed and outcoached. It doesn’t get any better for the Vols considering that South Carolina still boasts a great D. UT only scored 9 points last week; I can’t see them exceeding that total by much, if at all, this week. I’m going with So. Carolina.

#16 FLORIDA STATE (+2 ½) at Georgia Tech: If you haven’t been paying much attention to the ACC this year (and let’s be honest, who outside the mid-Atlantic really has been watching?), Florida State has played well enough to this point to sit tied with Maryland atop the Atlantic division. Although Florida State isn’t blowing teams out and running up the score like they once did, the ‘Noles are winning close games that in recent years they always seemed to lose. Plus, I read that Bobby Bowden has never lost to Georgia Tech. Considering he’s been coaching for 200 years, that’s not very good for the Yellow Jackets. I’m taking Grandpa Bobby and the ‘Noles.

#1 TEXAS (-3 1/2) at #6 Texas Tech: Texas Tech has played very impressively to this point, and their 63-21 beatdown of Kansas last week was an exclamation point heading into their matchup with the Longhorns. Texas is certainly a little more battle tested that the Red Raiders, having knocked off Oklahoma, Mizzou, and Oklahoma State (all top 10 teams) in consecutive weeks. The common denominator in all of those Longhorn wins was their defensive performance, and they will be – by far – the best defense Tech faces all year. These two could very well trade scores all day long, but I really think the Texas D will force a couple of costly turnovers that decide this game.

#5 Florida vs. #8 GEORGIA (+6 1/2) (at Jacksonville, FL): What was more embarrassing for Florida last year: watching the ‘Dawgs jump around like crazy in the endzone or watching the scoreboard at the end of the game? Georgia ultimately won this game in a walk, cruising past the Gators 42-30. Emotions obviously always run high in this rivalry game, but last year’s pasting really seems to have gotten under the Gators’ skin. Georgia has been on notice since the SEC football media days this summer that Florida was gunning for them, so I highly doubt they’ll be caught off guard or fail to match the Gators’ intensity. Florida may well win the game, and I expect that they will. However, I think this game will be much closer than last year, and 6 ½ points is just a tad too much to give away. Take the ‘Dawgs and the points.

Last week: 4-6

Rev Picks 'Em: Week Nine

In these tough economic times, it’s encouraging to know that if you invested in HHR’s pick ‘em recommendations last week, you would not have lost any money. Can the S&P 500 say that? Of course not! So stick with us, and we’ll get you through the rough waters in the weeks ahead.

We know that for you betting fanatics, a 5-5 record is not real encouraging. We’ll consider last week a lesson learned – but we’re back now with a vengeance ready to improve on that .500 mark. Here we go:

#23 BOSTON COLLEGE (+ 3 1/2) at North Carolina (5-2): At 5-1, Boston College seems to be enjoying life just fine in the post-Matt Ryan era. After spotting Virginia Tech 10 early points last week, BC came back to beat the Hokies 28-23. Meanwhile, North Carolina inexplicably lost in overtime last week at Virginia, a game I was sure they were going to win. I’m still mad about the UNC game, so my vengeance pick this week is Boston College on the road and getting the points.

CINCINNATI (-1 ½) at Connecticut: Acutally, I have two vengeance picks this week: UConn let me down last week with a pitiful performance at Rutgers. In fact, every time I’ve picked UConn this year I’ve been let down. So I’m going the other way now - I’m convinced that the Huskies have peaked and will finish no better than fourth in the Big East. Meanwhile, there’s at least one football team in Cincinnati that is playing halfway decent this year, and I’m definitely not talking about the Bengals. In the latest AP rankings, the Bearcats stood just outside the top 25. The Bearcats only loss this season came at Oklahoma, which isn’t too shabby. Take Cincy and give the points.

NOTRE DAME (-11 ½) at Washington: What’s to like about the 0-6 Huskies? That’s a rhetorical question – don’t answer. Plus, how sadly ironic is it that Notre Dame will be hammering one of the final nails in Ty Willingham’s coffin this weekend?

#8 TEXAS TECH (+ 1 ½) at #19 Kansas: Texas Tech is undefeated and averaging close to 46 points a game. This will be the first time the Red Raiders will have faced a top 25 opponent this year, but offensively this matchup may work in their favor. You see, the Kansas D got exposed quite a bit by Oklahoma’s passing attack last week; bad thing for the Jayhawks, then, because Texas Tech slings the ball on just about every play from scrimmage (343 pass attempts vs. 174 rushing attempts, nearly a 2:1 ratio). Guns Up! I like TTU and the points.

MICHIGAN STATE (-4 ½) at Michigan: I’m calling for a mercy killing for Michigan’s 2008 football season. Somebody end this now.

#7 Oklahoma State at #1 TEXAS (-12 ½): Has anyone played a more brutal stretch of games over the past couple of weeks than Texas? Having defeated previously unbeaten Oklahoma and Missouri in back-to-back weeks, does Oklahoma State really stand a chance? 12 ½ is a ton of points to give to the Cowboys, but considering how well the Texas D is playing, the line sounds reasonable.

VIRGINIA TECH (+5 ½) at #24 Florida State: Quietly, Florida State has enjoyed a bit of a resurgence this year – the ‘Noles are 5-1 and are tied with Boston College atop the ACC’s Atlantic Division. Virginia Tech won this game last year in Blacksburg, coach Bobby Bowden’s first loss to the Hokies, so you can bet that FSU will be out for some revenge. However, VA Tech is a decent defensive team, and I just don’t think FSU is offensively powerful enough to put the Hokies away. I’m looking for a close defensive struggle – FSU should win, but I don’t think they’ll cover.

#9 Georgia at #11 LSU (-1 ½): Georgia and LSU are two pretty evenly matched teams – both are probably about 2nd best in their respective SEC divisions. Death Valley is an awfully tough place to play on a Saturday night (what, with 90,000 well-lubricated Tiger fans screaming for blood), and outside of Knowshown Moreno, I don’t think Georgia’s really got the offensive firepower to challenge LSU’s D. If they were getting a few more points, I might be tempted to take the Dawgs, but since they’re only getting 1 ½, I’m taking LSU at home.

#2 Alabama at TENNESSEE (+ 6 ½): Tennessee coach Phil Fulmer made a career out of beating rival Alabama, and he might need to do it again Saturday in Knoxville in order to keep the critics calling for his head at bay. Their coach notwithstanding, the Vols have the size and girth to avoid being pushed around by ‘Bama’s offensive and defensive lines, giving me reason to believe Tennessee will keep this close. I still like ‘Bama to win the game outright, but I think Tennessee covers here.

“Is this over yet?”

#3 PENN STATE (-2 ½) at #10 Ohio State: Ohio State enters this game fresh off a 38 point thrashing of Michigan State, proving yet again that Ohio State is remarkably good at shutting down one dimensional offenses. What to do, then, for the Buckeyes when Penn State goes 3 or 4 wide? The Lions have the speed necessary to seriously challenge – and damage – the Ohio State D. I’m sold on Penn State, and I think they dethrone the reigning Big Ten champs in this one.

Last week’s record: 5-5

Rev Picks 'Em: Week Eight

For all you sports betting fiends out there, Rev switches up the pick ems this week, now offering picks based on weekly college football odds.

CONNECTICUT (-1 ½) at Rutgers: The Scarlet Knights have to be considered the poster children for the ineptitude of the Big East conference this year in college football. Since knocking off then #3 Louisville in 2006, Rutgers has stumbled badly to an 11-12 overall record. With no Ray Rice to lean on, senior QB Mike Teel has played poorly, completing only 55% of his passes and has a paltry 3-7 TD to INT ratio. Connecticut was exposed in their 38-12 loss at North Carolina, but after a bye last week they should bounce back strong against one of the weakest teams (outside of Syracuse) in the Big East.

Michigan at # 3 PENN STATE (-23 ½): This pains me to write, but I have very little faith in this Michigan squad – so little hope, that I’m not even tempted by the 23 ½ points they’ll be getting at Happy Valley. Penn State has speed everywhere on offense and are scoring way too often (317 points on the season thus far) for Michigan’s beleaguered defense to handle. In losses to Notre Dame and Illinois, Michigan gave up 35 and 45 points, respectively. After Penn State’s rout of Wisconsin last week (48-7), I don’t think Penn State will have too much trouble scoring.

Western Michigan Broncos at CENTRAL MICHIGAN (+1 ½): With both teams entering this contest undefeated in conference play, the outcome of this game will go a long way toward determining the MAC champion this year. QB Tim Hiller leads Western Michigan with over 2,000 yards passing and 23 TDs this far into the season. Central Michigan on the other hand, doesn’t score a ton of points or put up gaudy numbers, but they do just enough to hang around and win games late. In the four games since their 56-17 blowout loss at then #2 Georgia, the Chippewas have gone 3-1 with an average margin of victory of 5.0 points. Considering their games are usually close, I’m going to take the underdog at home and run with the points.

#18 NORTH CAROLINA (-4 ½) at Virginia: I love UNC here. In just year two under Butch Davis, the Tarheels will challenge for top-dog status in the ACC as the season goes on. They face a Virginia team that has won two straight after early season struggles, but I just don’t think the Cavaliers stand much of a chance. Virginia’s averaging just 17.0 points a game vs. UNC’s 31.8. Did I mention I love UNC?
#11 Ohio State at #17 MICHIGAN STATE (+3 ½) So far, no team has been able to hold down the Spartans’ super running back Javon Ringer – but then again, the Spartans haven’t played a team that is as good against the run as Ohio State. With the loss of DE Lawrence Wilson, the Buckeyes may be tempted to bring 8 men into the box to stop Ringer, and that may open things up just enough for MSU QB Brian Hoyer to hit some quick, intermediate routes downfield. Of course, Michigan State will likely be forced to do the same to stop OSU RB Beanie Wells, so much of the Buckeyes’ success will depend on how freshman QB handles his first true test against a top-flight opponent on the road. This one should be close, so I’m taking the Spartans and the points at home.

MIAMI (-4 ½) at Duke: Duke is one of the feel-good stories of the season in year one of coach David Cutcliffe’s stewardship. Cutcliffe is a fantastic offensive schemer and play caller – for proof, look at what his absence has meant to the Tennessee Volunteers this year. However, I expect Miami’s raw athletic ability will far outclass that of Duke; plus, the ‘Canes are 0-2 thus far in ACC conference play, so they should be out hungry for a win in this one.

ARKANSAS (+7 ½) at Kentucky: Arkansas coach Bobby Petrino returns to Lexington sporting a spotless record against the ‘Cats, having gone 4-0 vs. UK during his days at the helm of Louisville. Kentucky has an outstanding defense, but their offense is almost non-existent – they had 4 take-aways last week and still lost to South Carolina, 24-17. Compounding problems for UK is the loss of senior WR Dicky Lyons to a season-ending knee injury - without their top WR target available, the Cats seemingly will be very one dimensional from here on out. If Arkansas stops the run this weekend, they have a very real chance to win this game outright. That, and you know Petrino will have something devious cooked up for his former in-state rival.

#13 LSU at SOUTH CAROLINA (+2 ½): LSU was flat embarrassed last week against Florida, losing by 30 in the Swamp. Taking cues from that game, South Carolina’s superb defense will look to put a ton of pressure on LSU’s inexperienced QB tandem of Jarrett Lee and Andrew Hatch and force them into multiple turnovers. Plus, now that the ol’ Ball Coach has (for the time being) settled around the talented Stephen Garcia as his starting QB, the reins may be loosened a bit on the Gamecocks’ here-to-now bottled-up offense. I think they have a real shot at springing the upset outright in this one.

#25 CALIFORNIA (-2 ½) at Arizona: Outside of a no-show performance in their loss at Maryland, Cal is quietly enjoying a solid start to their season out West. The only remaining unbeaten in the PAC-10, Cal is ringing up 39.4 points per game. The numbers, meanwhile, say Arizona tops that with an average of 40.1 points a game – but if you throw out their 70-0 blowout of Idaho to open the season, Arizona’s scoring per game average drops to 34.2. Cal looks to be a little more balanced offensively than the pass happy Wildcats, and the Bears running game should grind them out a win this weekend in the desert.

#11 Mizzou at #1 TEXAS (-5 ½): Mizzou is coming off a crushing and unexpected loss at the hands of Oklahoma State last week. With this weekend’s matchup with #1 Texas next on the slate, it’s fair to say that it’s panic time in Columbia right now. Two losses in conference doesn’t necessarily kill their season, but it just may end any talk that the Tigers could play for the national championship. The number #1 ranking hasn’t been kind to those who’ve worn it this year, and Texas will have a big target on their backs this week against a desperate Mizzou squad. That aside … did you watch the Texas-Oklahoma game? Texas is pretty good – better than Mizzou, in my opinion. I’m taking the ‘Horns and giving 5 ½ here.