After bruising assumptions of the NFL Defensive Player of the Year being able to slowdown a Boldin-less offense and Carson Palmer being able to throw a football, I am coming back like a spider monkey to make this weekend's picks.
Chargers over Jets - when one of the major storylines is that Sanchez is going to have friends and family at the game, it's time to go with the professional team rather than the kid trying to prove something to his dad and impress the girl with big cans. Arizona over Saints - Saints are going to win this game, but by 7 points? That's looser than the moral standards during the NBA All-Star weekend.
Ravens over Colts - I'm on the rusty trombone train here with the Colts. It always gobbles up one team and with a rookie head coach playing the instrument, the Ravens are going to give them more than a hand full.
Vikings over Cowboys - if Favre goes with the gameplan and hands the ball to AP, they will be fine. Otherwise, go with the over on how many interceptions will be thrown.
Another weekend of acting like a sea otter by eating and drinking off my belly.
Too bad Texas Tech and Oklahoma aren't playing this weekend, because there is NOTHING of consequence being contested this weekend. Sure, we could all keep an eye out for the huge upset: Alabama plays Mississippi State on Saturday, and the Bulldogs have beaten the Tide two straight; also South Carolina plays at Florida, and you know coach Spurrier will pull out all the stops to try and beat the Gators. Otherwise, I'm going to be left doing my best to put a good face on what looks to be a very ugly slate of games.
Looking first at the Big Ten: Since Penn State lost last week, count me among those who are thrilled to (finally) write the conference off this year. Let's all send Iowa a big "thank you" for exposing Penn State before an SEC or Big XII team could do so in the national championship game.
That said, the Big Ten intramural season continues on this weekend, so I'll throw out a couple lines just in case you're craving a taste.
NORTHWESTERN (+3 1/2) vs Michigan MINNESOTA (+ 13 1/2) vs Wisconsin #10 Ohio State vs. ILLINOIS (+9 1/2)
In case you’re looking for winless teams playing at home this weekend, you’re in luck because we’ve got two on the slate this week. It’s doesn’t say much that both Washington and Syracuse are getting bunches of points at home and I couldn’t come close to considering them.
UCLA (-7) at Washington UCONN (-10) vs. Syracuse
Now on to some not so terrible games (but I still can’t convince you that I’ll be watching this weekend):
NOTRE DAME (-4) vs. Navy: After last year’s upset of Notre Dame in South Bend, the Midshipmen are looking to make it two straight against the Irish. Charlie Weis will be back on the headset calling plays for the Irish this weekend, and I don’t understand why he ever stopped in the first place – he’s a better coordinator than he is a head coach to begin with. This game is on the road and the Irish are terrible away from South Bend, so the Middies definitely have a chance. I don’t see the Irish completely folding up, but I guess anything’s possible.
California vs. # 23 OREGON STATE: After Oregon State shocked USC early this season, the Trojans got slammed for losing to a supposedly god-awful team and were punished by dropping 9,000,000 spots in the polls. That loss doesn’t look so bad now, with OSU sitting at 6-3 and ranked in the top 25. Let’s remember that when USC gets snubbed out of the national championship game.
#17 NORTH CAROLINA (-3) vs. Maryland: Forget about going to Tennessee – UNC coach Butch Davis has got a very good thing going in just year two of his coaching tenure at North Carolina. UNC needs a win to keep pace with Miami atop the ACC Coastal division, and I think they get the win on the road against the Terps this weekend.
BOSTON COLLEGE (+6 1/2) vs. Florida State: Can you call a team “plucky” and not make it sound like an insult? I like BC, even if they are down a bit vs. the standard they set last year. Outside of a bad loss at North Carolina, BC has been close in the other two games they lost – 19-16 to Georgia Tech, and 27-21 to Clemson. I don’t think they’ll beat the ‘Noles in Tallahassee, but the 6 ½ points they’re getting on the road is enticing enough for me to pick them this week.
Vanderbilt vs. KENTUCKY (-3 1/2): Both Vandy and UK got off to fast starts this season, but predictably both stumbled a bit once SEC conference play began. Kentucky is bowl eligible for the third year in a row at 6-4, and a win here would go a long way to preventing a return trip to the Music City Bowl in Nashville. Vandy is close behind at 5-4 and looking for that elusive sixth win – since 1984, however, a five-win Vandy team has played the Cats four times and come up empty each time out. UK looked impressive in last week’s last second 42-38 loss to Georgia, and I’m looking for some of that same offensive success to carry over here.
WEST VIRGINIA (-3 1/2) at Connecticut: What gives with these two? West Virginia started the year ranked highly, then lost to ECU and Colorado, and now seem to be rolling again after trouncing a faltering Auburn team last week in Morgantown. UConn is much the same way – after climbing into the top 25, they dropped some clunkers against Rutgers and UNC. I think WV QB Pat White is the best player on both teams and he has proven time and again to be a game breaker - I’ll be a front-runner here and stick by the Mountaineers.
MIAMI (+2) at Virginia: Both teams are 5-3 and angling for position in a suddenly crowded ACC Coastal Division. Virginia is scoring just 17.8 points per game and they’re giving up 22.3 points to their opponents, yet somehow they have won 4 in a row. As Dubya would say, that’s fuzzy math that can’t possibly hold up. I like Miami’s ability to score (39 ppg) and I like the fact their getting points here. I’m going with the ‘Canes.
AIRFORCE (-8) at Army: Army football hasn’t been good in a long, long time. Go with Air Force and lay the points.
Pittsburgh at NOTRE DAME (-4 1/2): This game is tailor made for the ‘Stache to lose. Outside of playing spoiler against West Virginia last year, Pittsburgh has a tendency to lose big games like this. It’s not that I’m so impressed with Notre Dame, it’s just that I would be scared to death to actually wager that Dave Wannstedt could win a game that matters.
#23 OREGON (+3) at California: Cal has had their share of problems with high-powered offenses (see their 42-27 loss at Arizona). That’s not so great for the Bears considering the Ducks are scoring 41.5 points per game. Give me the Ducks and the points.
Iowa at ILLINOIS (-2 1/2): The Big Ten season ended last week with Penn State winning at Ohio State. If you’re betting this game you either a) attended one of these schools, b) have been a lifelong fan for one team or the other, or c) you are a hard-core gambling addict that needs help.
Tennessee at SOUTH CAROLINA (-5 1/2): The orange apocalypse is soon to come for UT coach Phil Fulmer. Things are real bad right now in Knoxville – they played competitively in spurts last week against Alabama, but overall the Vols just looked to be outclassed and outcoached. It doesn’t get any better for the Vols considering that South Carolina still boasts a great D. UT only scored 9 points last week; I can’t see them exceeding that total by much, if at all, this week. I’m going with So. Carolina.
#16 FLORIDA STATE (+2 ½) at Georgia Tech: If you haven’t been paying much attention to the ACC this year (and let’s be honest, who outside the mid-Atlantic really has been watching?), Florida State has played well enough to this point to sit tied with Maryland atop the Atlantic division. Although Florida State isn’t blowing teams out and running up the score like they once did, the ‘Noles are winning close games that in recent years they always seemed to lose. Plus, I read that Bobby Bowden has never lost to Georgia Tech. Considering he’s been coaching for 200 years, that’s not very good for the Yellow Jackets. I’m taking Grandpa Bobby and the ‘Noles.
#1 TEXAS (-3 1/2) at #6 Texas Tech: Texas Tech has played very impressively to this point, and their 63-21 beatdown of Kansas last week was an exclamation point heading into their matchup with the Longhorns. Texas is certainly a little more battle tested that the Red Raiders, having knocked off Oklahoma, Mizzou, and Oklahoma State (all top 10 teams) in consecutive weeks. The common denominator in all of those Longhorn wins was their defensive performance, and they will be – by far – the best defense Tech faces all year. These two could very well trade scores all day long, but I really think the Texas D will force a couple of costly turnovers that decide this game.
#5 Florida vs. #8 GEORGIA (+6 1/2) (at Jacksonville, FL): What was more embarrassing for Florida last year: watching the ‘Dawgs jump around like crazy in the endzone or watching the scoreboard at the end of the game? Georgia ultimately won this game in a walk, cruising past the Gators 42-30. Emotions obviously always run high in this rivalry game, but last year’s pasting really seems to have gotten under the Gators’ skin. Georgia has been on notice since the SEC football media days this summer that Florida was gunning for them, so I highly doubt they’ll be caught off guard or fail to match the Gators’ intensity. Florida may well win the game, and I expect that they will. However, I think this game will be much closer than last year, and 6 ½ points is just a tad too much to give away. Take the ‘Dawgs and the points. Last week: 4-6
In these tough economic times, it’s encouraging to know that if you invested in HHR’s pick ‘em recommendations last week, you would not have lost any money. Can the S&P 500 say that? Of course not! So stick with us, and we’ll get you through the rough waters in the weeks ahead.
We know that for you betting fanatics, a 5-5 record is not real encouraging. We’ll consider last week a lesson learned – but we’re back now with a vengeance ready to improve on that .500 mark. Here we go:
#23 BOSTON COLLEGE (+ 3 1/2) at North Carolina (5-2): At 5-1, Boston College seems to be enjoying life just fine in the post-Matt Ryan era. After spotting Virginia Tech 10 early points last week, BC came back to beat the Hokies 28-23. Meanwhile, North Carolina inexplicably lost in overtime last week at Virginia, a game I was sure they were going to win. I’m still mad about the UNC game, so my vengeance pick this week is Boston College on the road and getting the points.
CINCINNATI (-1 ½) at Connecticut: Acutally, I have two vengeance picks this week: UConn let me down last week with a pitiful performance at Rutgers. In fact, every time I’ve picked UConn this year I’ve been let down. So I’m going the other way now - I’m convinced that the Huskies have peaked and will finish no better than fourth in the Big East. Meanwhile, there’s at least one football team in Cincinnati that is playing halfway decent this year, and I’m definitely not talking about the Bengals. In the latest AP rankings, the Bearcats stood just outside the top 25. The Bearcats only loss this season came at Oklahoma, which isn’t too shabby. Take Cincy and give the points.
NOTRE DAME (-11 ½) at Washington: What’s to like about the 0-6 Huskies? That’s a rhetorical question – don’t answer. Plus, how sadly ironic is it that Notre Dame will be hammering one of the final nails in Ty Willingham’s coffin this weekend?
#8 TEXAS TECH (+ 1 ½) at #19 Kansas: Texas Tech is undefeated and averaging close to 46 points a game. This will be the first time the Red Raiders will have faced a top 25 opponent this year, but offensively this matchup may work in their favor. You see, the Kansas D got exposed quite a bit by Oklahoma’s passing attack last week; bad thing for the Jayhawks, then, because Texas Tech slings the ball on just about every play from scrimmage (343 pass attempts vs. 174 rushing attempts, nearly a 2:1 ratio). Guns Up! I like TTU and the points.
MICHIGAN STATE (-4 ½) at Michigan: I’m calling for a mercy killing for Michigan’s 2008 football season. Somebody end this now.
#7 Oklahoma State at #1 TEXAS (-12 ½): Has anyone played a more brutal stretch of games over the past couple of weeks than Texas? Having defeated previously unbeaten Oklahoma and Missouri in back-to-back weeks, does Oklahoma State really stand a chance? 12 ½ is a ton of points to give to the Cowboys, but considering how well the Texas D is playing, the line sounds reasonable.
VIRGINIA TECH (+5 ½) at #24 Florida State: Quietly, Florida State has enjoyed a bit of a resurgence this year – the ‘Noles are 5-1 and are tied with Boston College atop the ACC’s Atlantic Division. Virginia Tech won this game last year in Blacksburg, coach Bobby Bowden’s first loss to the Hokies, so you can bet that FSU will be out for some revenge. However, VA Tech is a decent defensive team, and I just don’t think FSU is offensively powerful enough to put the Hokies away. I’m looking for a close defensive struggle – FSU should win, but I don’t think they’ll cover.
#9 Georgia at #11 LSU (-1 ½): Georgia and LSU are two pretty evenly matched teams – both are probably about 2nd best in their respective SEC divisions. Death Valley is an awfully tough place to play on a Saturday night (what, with 90,000 well-lubricated Tiger fans screaming for blood), and outside of Knowshown Moreno, I don’t think Georgia’s really got the offensive firepower to challenge LSU’s D. If they were getting a few more points, I might be tempted to take the Dawgs, but since they’re only getting 1 ½, I’m taking LSU at home.
#2 Alabama at TENNESSEE (+ 6 ½): Tennessee coach Phil Fulmer made a career out of beating rival Alabama, and he might need to do it again Saturday in Knoxville in order to keep the critics calling for his head at bay. Their coach notwithstanding, the Vols have the size and girth to avoid being pushed around by ‘Bama’s offensive and defensive lines, giving me reason to believe Tennessee will keep this close. I still like ‘Bama to win the game outright, but I think Tennessee covers here.
“Is this over yet?”
#3 PENN STATE (-2 ½) at #10 Ohio State: Ohio State enters this game fresh off a 38 point thrashing of Michigan State, proving yet again that Ohio State is remarkably good at shutting down one dimensional offenses. What to do, then, for the Buckeyes when Penn State goes 3 or 4 wide? The Lions have the speed necessary to seriously challenge – and damage – the Ohio State D. I’m sold on Penn State, and I think they dethrone the reigning Big Ten champs in this one.
Despite all the turmoil in the Top Ten, the Rev’ managed a steady 7-3 record picking last week’s games. This week’s slate again features a bunch of good teams on the road...and like the sucker I am, I’m picking seven road winners. Here are the picks:
10 points: #6 PENN STATE (5-0) at Purdue (2-2): Penn State has looked pretty impressive offensively thus far in the season. On the flip side, you could say Purdue has looked just as bad on the defensive side of the ball. After letting Notre Dame march up and down the field, I’m not too impressed with the Boilermakers. There’s a reason Penn State’s laying 12. I say take PSU and give the points.
9 points: #8 TEXAS TECH (4-0) at Kansas State (3-1): Want to take a guess how many total points could be scored in this game? 180 seems possible.
8 points: #14 AUBURN (4-1) at #19 Vanderbilt (4-0): And this game? The over/under is 37 for this game. DEFINITELY take the under. Auburn is positively awful on offense.
On a side note: congratulations to Vandy for becoming a relevant football opponent in the SEC this year.
7 points: #23 CONNECTICUT (5-0) at North Carolina (3-1): Having seen UCONN running back Donald Brown in person last week, you can color me impressed. He reminds me of a Ray Rice clone – runs hard inside, quick around the corner outside. This game will be in the 20’s, but I give the Huskies the edge late in the game because of the wrecking ball they have carrying the load for them in the backfield.
6 points: ILLINOIS (2-2) at Michigan (2-2): Michigan played a great second half to knock off Wisconsin last week, a game I figured they were destined to lose. However, keep in mind that they did spot the Badgers 19 points and did let Wisconsin drive on them at the end of the game with a chance to tie, so I’m not sold that this was a tide-turning win for the Wolverines. That was an emotional win last week, and I’m counting on the old let-down game this week – take Illinois and the points (+2).
5 points: Florida State (3-1) at MIAMI (2-2): This used to be the best game of the year. Now it’s just another midlevel conference matchup between two so-so teams. Hooray for ACC football!
3 points: #12 Ohio State (4-1) at #17 WISCONSIN (3-1): Since making the move to QB Tyrell Pryor, the Buckeyes have actually looked halfway decent. However, all that improvement has come in the friendly confines of the Horseshoe in Columbus. The Bucks take their show on the road to Madison this week, and I expect the Badgers will be out for blood after absolutely blowing an open road to the Big Ten championship last week at Michigan.
2 points: #5 TEXAS (4-0) at Colorado (3-1): Colorado got fat early in the season beating up on Colorado State, Eastern Washington, and a not-so-good West Virginia team. Then they took their show on the road to Florida State last week and got absolutely shellacked. Texas is the real deal and they score points in bunches (they’ve beaten three different opponents by the score of 52-10). I like the Longhorns in the Big XII conference opener for both teams.
1 point: #3 MIZZOU (4-0) at Nebraska (3-1): Nebraska has won 30 straight conference home openers. I’m guessing, however, that the vast majority of those wins did not come against offenses as potent as what Mizzou possesses. The Tigers score nearly at will – they are averaging nearly 54 points a game. The big key for Nebraska if they are to have a change will be to play ball control by running the ball and keep Mizzou’s offense off the field. Mizzou’s going to face a hostile environment in Lincoln to be sure, but they are by far a more talented team than what Nebraska will field.
After a long, hard slog in the desert, college football is back. And with it, the Rev’s weekly picks are back.
Thus kicks off the best time of year. Find a TV, a comfortable chair, lots of refreshing beverages, and sit down and take in all the beauty this weekend. Here we go:
10 points: #15 VIRGINIA TECH (0-0) at East Carolina (0-0): Last year’s ACC champion Virginia Tech will field another strong team this year, led by a strong defensive unit and stellar special teams play. You could probably write that about every Frank Beamer coached team, and it’s a prime reason VT has won 10 or more games four years running – a feat matched only by USC.
9 points: #2 USC (0-0) at Virginia (0-0): The Men of Troy make their way east to beat up on what should be a game but ultimately outmatched Cavaliers squad. Get past this game and all eyes turn to their September 13th match-up with Ohio State in Los Angeles.
8 points: Utah (0-0) at # 24 MICHIGAN (0-0): For Michigan fans’ sake, let’s all hope this one doesn’t end up the way last year’s home opener went.
That’s painful to watch and to listen to.
7 points: Washington (0-0) at # 20 OREGON (0-0): Despite losing QB Dennis Dixon and dynamo RB Jonathan Stewart, Oregon’s a 14 point favorite at home against the Huskies. Part of that is because nobody really expects a lot of great things out of this up-and-down team Ty Willingham has cobbled together at U-Dub. The other part of it is the fact that Autzen Stadium is damn near impossible for visiting teams. When the crowd noise gets around 125 db, as Ducks fans have been known to do, I think your ears start to bleed.
6 points: OKLAHOMA STATE (0-0) at Washington State (0-0): OK State coach Mike Gundy is one year older, so he’s that much more of a man as the 2008 season rolls around. Plus it helps that OK State has a pretty potent offense and WSU is projected to finish at the bottom of the Pac-10. Pokes prevail on the road vs. the Cougars.
5 points: TCU (0-0) at New Mexico (0-0): The Horned Frogs are a 6.5 point favorite on the road and have won three in a row dating back to 2005 vs. the Lobos. Good enough for me.
4 points: Syracuse (0-0) at NORTHWESTERN (0-0): It’s quite an understatement, but coach Greg Robinson’s tenure at Syracuse has been a disaster – he’s 7-28 at three years at the helm. A loss to Northwestern this weekend would make an already bleak season outlook that much worse for the Orange.
3 points: Alabama (0-0) at # 9 CLEMSON (0-0): Clemson enters 2008 with sky-high expectations of capturing an elusive ACC title and berth in the BCS bowl bonanza. Which probably means they will go 8-4. ‘Bama will be better in their second year under Nick Saban (incidentally, if you want to see how your salary stacks up to his, check out this depressing link courtesy of the Birmingham News), but it’s tough to see them really reestablishing themselves as the class of the SEC West just yet. Clemson’s version of Death Valley is a tough place for visitors to play, so I expect the Tigers to prevail in a squeaker.
2 points: Michigan State (0-0) at CAL (0-0): I’m taking Cal because I just don’t know what to make of Michigan State. I think the Spartans will get better as the season rolls along, but this is quite a reach to travel cross country and beat the Bears on their home field. Cal beat up on Tennessee last year when the Vols traveled west; I expect they’ll eke out a close one against MSU this weekend.
1 point: #19 Illinois (0-0) at # 7 MIZZOU (0-0): The Illini and the Tigers renew their cross-river rivalry in the annual edition of the “Bragging Rights” game at the Edwards Jones Dome in St. Louis. This isn’t quite Michigan – Ohio State, but this still a big-time rivalry - loyal reader Greg in St. Louis tells us that this game sold out in about five minutes.
The Illini have high expectations heading in to 2008 and should be a solid second place pick in the Big Ten. Counter that with the prognostication going on in Columbia, where the folks are downright delirious. There’s a lot of hype around this Mizzou football team, and a lot of people think the Tigers can challenge for the national title. This one is too close to call, but since I have to choose, I’ll take the Tigers in a nail-biter.
Our trusty New Era once again proved as accurate in picking winners as ESPN's baseball gurus. Sure, we all loved the Josh Hamilton show, but the idea was to pick the winner, not the runner-up.
Last year just prior to the playoffs, we conducted a little experiment to determine whether or not the prognostications of so-called MLB expert Steve Phillips was any more or less accurate than randomly picking teams out of a hat.
As you could have guessed, our New Era was as smart as Steve Phillips. Both "accurately" hit .500 in their LDS picks.
Well, the hat's back. Shortly, sluggers will step into the batters box in the House that Ruth Built.
As such, the 4-Letter's talking heads made their predictions. Well, so did New Era. Let's see what happens.
My, what a season it has been. Oregon bit the dust last night at Arizona, clearing the way for a new no. 2 next week. That, of course, followed Ohio State’s loss last weekend to Illinois. At this point, the national championship is completely up for grabs. LSU, Kansas, Oklahoma, even West Virginia and Missouri all have a chance to play for the title later this year.
So to put it lightly, this week’s slate of games is going to go a long way towards determining who will remain in the championship hunt and who will have to just settle for going to a bowl.
HHR went 7-3 last week, so we’re on a bit of a winning streak. Here are this week’s picks:
10 points: Iowa State (3-8) at KANSAS (10-0): With Oregon losing last night at Arizona, the Jayhawks will be the no. 2 team when rankings are released on Sunday. That is assuming they will win against a punchless Iowa State team, which they should not have a problem doing. For all the talk about the Jayhawks possibly being left out of the BCS title game, they control their own destiny now. Beat Iowa State, Mizzou, and Oklahoma in the Big XII Championship and they’re in.
9 points: OKLAHOMA (9-1) at Texas Tech (7-4): Like Kansas, Oklahoma seems to control their own destiny too: win out, play for national championship. Simple as that. On the other sideline, things don’t get any easier for the Red Raiders and their cry-baby coach, Mike Leach. Leach was fined a Big XII record $10,000 smackers for complaining about the officiating in last week’s 59-43 loss to Texas. Said Leach:
"I think it's disturbing that Austin residents (referee Randy Christal) are involved in this. People work too hard, too long, there's too much money invested in these games to allow that. Am I condemning the crew? Hell yeah, I'm condemning the crew."
Looks like Leach might be taking media pointers from Red Raiders basketball coach Bobby Knight. While it doesn’t quite surpass Oklahoma State Coach Mike Gundy’s ludicrous “I’m a Man!! I’m 40!!” rant from earlier this year , it’s still pretty good.
8 points: LOUISVILLE (5-5) at South Florida (7-3): Louisville played well in a 38-31 loss at West Virginia last week, despite taking only 22 active defensive players and abandoning the concept of running the ball effectively. But no matter how you cut it, this has been a disappointing season for the Cardinals. It was announced yesterday that starting DE DeAntwan “Peanut” Whitehead’s football career was over after being diagnosed with spinal stenosis, a potentially paralyzing condition where the spinal canal narrows in the neck. He’s the second Card to be diagnosed with the condition and the 4th Card overall to suffer a career-ending injury this year. From a fan’s perspective, I’m hoping against hope that QB Brian Brohm can go out on a high note, so that’s why this game is here.
CLUELESS.
7 points: WEST VIRGINIA (8-1) at Cincinnati (8-2): Mountaineers RB Steve Slaton seems to have regressed over last year’s breakout performance. However, while Slaton may have slipped just a bit, QB Pat White is proving that he is still one of the most electrifying players in college football today (see last week’s game breaking 50 yard TD scamper against Louisville with 1:36 left to play). This game will be tough as Cincy has a hard-hitting defense that will severely test WV’s potent offense. In the end though, the Mountaineers just have too many weapons, and I look for them to squeak by the Bearcats by no more than 6 or 7 points.
6 points: PENN STATE (8-3) at Michigan State (6-5): Michigan State needs this game bad to lock up a bowl berth, but … winning is just not something they do in East Lansing this time of year.
5 points: Kentucky (7-3) at GEORGIA (8-2): UK inexplicably laid an egg against Mississippi State their last time out, all but ending the Cats chances of winning a wide-open SEC East. Now Georgia is in the driver’s seat, and they have revenge on their mind for last year’s loss in Lexington. UGA has hung 40+ points on three straight opponents, including SEC stalwarts Florida and Auburn. The Wildcats better come ready to play or they could be in for a long, long afternoon between the hedges in Athens.
4 points: Boston College (8-2) at CLEMSON (8-2): It hurts my brain to pick Clemson in a game of this magnitude (winner wins the ACC Coastal Division), but I can’t find a reason not to take them at home.
3 points: OREGON STATE (6-4) at Washington State (4-6): I won’t be watching this game. I doubt you will either.
2 points: Maryland (5-5) at FLORIDA STATE (6-4): Five, six, maybe seven years ago, Florida State wins this game by 90 points. Maybe that’s a little high, but you get my point. Now, who knows. Granpda Bowden is definitely asleep at the wheel.
1 point: OHIO STATE (10-1) at Michigan (8-3): With apologies to Dunbar, I’m going with the Bucks tomorrow. I don’t really think he could convince me otherwise, considering how Lloyd Carr’s final year in Ann Arbor has gone.
The Buckeyes blew their chance at getting back to the national championship game, so they’ll have to settle for doing what they do best: beating Michigan. Michigan, on the other hand, needs this game unlike any other. QB Chad Henne skipped the NFL draft with the express purpose of coming back to beat OSU at least one time during his career for the Maize and Blue. By the way, if this game wasn’t already hyped enough, this game will also decide the Big Ten championship and the league’s designee for the Rose Bowl.
I’m not a Big Ten fan, but even I’ll admit: this is bar none the best college football rivalry anywhere in America.
For the record, Michigan leads the all-time series 57-40-6. HHR’s Season Record: 57-44
HHR went 6-4 again last week. Of the 4 losses, three were decided by five points or less. So inch by inch, I feel that we’re pulling closer and closer back to respectability.
Despite losing four games last week, count me as pleased that Notre Dame was one of the four. I’m not a complete Irish hater, but I think it was absolutely remarkable to see Navy win for once in this series. Anyway, on to this week’s picks. Again, several key matchups are on tap this week, and I feel like I’m sticking my neck out on the line picking so many teams on the road …
"And if you don't like the Rev's picks, I got two words for ya..."
10 points: USC (7-2) at Cal (6-3): Cal’s season has gone from the sublime to the sewer in just a matter of weeks. They’ve lost 3 straight and are staring down no. 4 directly in the face as the Men of Troy invade Berkeley this weekend. USC hasn’t played up to their usual form, what with QB injuries and possible NCAA sanctions coming down the pike, but they are still one of the most talented teams in the country. I think Cal’s spiral downward continues tomorrow with the Trojans winning by 10 points or more.
9 points: KANSAS (9-0) at Oklahoma State (5-4): Just in case you weren’t watching, the Jayhawks hung 76 points on Nebraska last week to win going away. Kansas is 9-0 for the first time in who knows how long and should be 10-0 after this game. However, watching Lou “Mushmouth” Holtz’s pep talk during last night’s UL-WVU game, ol’ coach brought up an interesting point: the best team Kansas has beaten this year already has 4 losses (both Texas A&M and Kansas State).
8 points: FLORIDA (6-3) at South Carolina (6-4): Three weeks ago, the ol’ Ball Coach had So. Carolina sitting pretty atop the SEC East at 6-1. Since then, they’ve dropped three straight to Vandy, Tennessee, and Arkansas to fall right back in the cellar. Florida will keep them there this weekend.
7 points: Connecticut (8-1) at Cincinnati (7-2): Somebody beat UConn, please. I still have a bad taste in my mouth from the fair catch that wasn’t against Louisville. I’m a sore loser.
6 points: AUBURN (7-3) at Georgia (7-2): This game was memorable last year for Auburn QB Brandon Cox suffering a complete physical and mental breakdown against the Dawgs. He completed only 4 of 12 passes for 35 yards, was picked 4 times and had one pick run back for a score. In short, this wasn’t his best game last year.
5 points: Florida State (6-3) at VA TECH (7-2): FSU proved there’s still some life left in the program with last week’s convincing win in Chestnut Hill against previously unbeaten #2 Boston College. However, if this week holds to form, FSU will regress tremendously, turning the ball over at will and letting the Hokies run roughshod over their once-vaunted defense. If I were a betting man, I would stay as far away from this Seminole’s team as possible.
4 points: Texas Tech (7-3) at TEXAS (8-2): Everything’s bigger in Texas, just as the final score will be after this one’s through. “Guns Up” vs. “Hook ‘Em Horns” - lots and lots of points to be scored for sure.
3 points: Illinois (7-3) at OHIO STATE (10-0): In this, the year of the upset, tomorrow’s game could be a huge trap for Ohio State. I have a creeping suspicion that the Zooker and his Illini troops might be able to pull of a shocker here. But for the record, I’m taking the Buckeyes since they’ll be playing at home and with a chance to enter their upcoming game against Michigan undefeated and in the lead for the Big Ten title.
2 points: Wake Forest (6-3) at CLEMSON (7-2): With BC losing last week, the ACC is still up for grabs. By the way, the loser fades off into ACC irrelevancy, which Clemson has branded, trademarked and copyrighted the past several years or so.
1 point: MICHIGAN (8-2) at Wisconsin (7-3): How about Michigan bouncing back from an 0-2 start that would have killed most other teams (see: Notre Dame, 2007 edition). They’re ranked #14 in the country and are tied with Ohio State for top honors in the Big Ten. But like their hated rival Buckeyes, the Wolverines face some kind of a trap game this weekend. Check that – it’s not a trap game, it’s a tough opponent playing at home with nothing left to lose this season. The Wolverines will be in for a big battle in Madison tomorrow.
We’re getting closer and closer to the end of college football season, so it should come as no surprise that the games get a little bit harder to pick. But the mental gymnastics this slate just put me through have me wishing I was back with Dunbar poring over horse racing sheets. I think the ponies give me a better chance than these games do.
(Which just in case nobody was watching, Dunbar nailed the Breeders’ Cup Classic with his pick on Curlin to win, and the ol’ Rev himself scored on the Distaff with Ginger Punch. Pats on the back welcome and appreciated.)
The picks went 6-4 last week – a win’s a win, but I was hoping and praying it would be much higher than that. There’s nothing else to say except that I continue to be baffled by college football this year.
10 points: Wisconsin (7-2) at OHIO STATE (9-0): I should have more to say about a 10 point game, but O-H-I-O can’t lose right now. Moving on …
9 points: Arizona State (8-0) at OREGON (7-1): Wow – an exciting game in the PAC-10 that does not involve USC. With apologies to some of our readers, it was time for all of us East Coast-loving sports fans to ignore another top ranked team out west. But in all seriousness, the winner of this game could sneak their way in to the national championship game – with a loss or two by other higher-ranked teams, of course.
8 points: MICHIGAN (7-2) at Michigan State (5-4): Michigan State is doing what they always do – start off the season red-hot (read: beat up on non-conference opponents) and then completely fold down the stretch (i.e., resume whipping-boy status in the Big Ten).
7 points: Nebraska (4-5) at KANSAS (8-0): The Bill Callahan Farewell Tour makes its way through Lawrence, KS this weekend. Waiting for them there: an 8-0 Kansas Jayhawks team and their coach Mark Mangino, a charter member of the Ralph Friedgen All-Stars.
6 points: Rutgers (5-3) at UCONN (7-1): I’m only satisfied with an 8, 9 or 10 win season by UConn’s football team if that means their men’s basketball team will completely suck this coming year.
5 points: LSU (7-1) at Alabama (6-2): Alabama coach Nick Saban squares off for the first time against his old team, LSU, in a game that has important implications for the SEC West title. I would not be completely surprised to see ‘Bama spring the upset.
4 points: Cincinnati (6-2) at SO. FLORIDA (6-2): A tale of two teams heading in the wrong direction. Both enter tomorrow’s game sporting two-game conference losing streaks. So for the loser, that will mean a three-game conference losing streak a “Thanks for Playing!” gift basket as they head off to whatever irrelevant bowl is being hosted in boomtowns like Birmingham or El Paso.
3 points: Florida State (5-3) at BOSTON COLLEGE (8-0): Retire already. You know who you are.
2 points: Navy (4-4) at NOTRE DAME (1-7): As much as I would LOVE to see the Middies beat Notre Dame, history is clearly not on their side. Notre Dame has beaten Navy 43 straight times, and will most likely make it 44 on Saturday.
1 point: WAKE FOREST (6-2) at Virginia (7-2): Wake Forest has bounced back nicely after a couple early losses and is still a lurking dark horse in the ACC title picture, for whatever that’s worth. Virginia is right there with them, but they tend to quit when the going gets tough. Just like one of their most famous football alums:
10 points: OHIO STATE (7-0) at Penn State (6-2): The Buckeyes are rolling right now. Surprise, surprise. No reason to think they’ll be stopped this week.
9 points: California (5-2) at ARIZONA STATE (7-0): Tale of two teams going in opposite directions: Arizona State is as red-hot as any team in the country, while Cal (who figured prominently in the national title race just weeks ago) has lost two straight games. By the way, I love how PAC-10 teams keep taking chances on Dennis Erickson (Wash. St., Oregon St., Arizona St.). Here’s hoping he gets the chance to coach all 10 before he retires. I think that would be a record.
8 points: South Carolina (6-2) at TENNESSEE (4-3): In keeping with the theme of this football season, South Carolina (who was in control of the SEC East division) lost last week to perennial SEC doormat Vanderbilt. As an interesting side note, it was also the Ol’ Ball Coach’s first ever loss to Vandy.
For the second straight week, it looks like a team from the Volunteer State will beat So. Carolina. Close game, but Tennessee prevails at home.
7 points: Kansas (7-0) at TEXAS A&M (6-2): Feel good story Kansas has surprised a bunch of people with their play so far, including yours truly. Texas A&M, meanwhile, seems to have gotten back to what they do best, which is run over people for four quarters.
But even if the Aggies do win this game, is there even the slightest chance coach Dennis Franchione keeps his job after this year? For future reference: a subscription insiders-only newsletter to boosters where you give away publicly undisclosed information about your team is not a good idea, especially when you start losing games and those same boosters leak your illegal newsletter to the media.
6 points: Florida (5-2) at GEORGIA (5-2) (*at Jacksonville): All you need to know - from Wikipedia:
“Due to sensitivity about consumption of alcohol by college students, the (game) is officially known as the Florida-Georgia/Georgia-Florida game (depending on which team is the home team in a given year). Additionally, in May 2006, the Southeastern Conference asked the three networks which broadcast SEC football games not to refer to the game by the moniker "World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party," as it conveys a message regarding consumption of alcohol that the schools do not desire.”
5 points: Nebraska (4-4) at TEXAS (6-2): For Bill Callahan, job security does not mean that your new boss is Tom Osborne. Seriously, didn’t you see this one coming from a million miles away?
4 points: SOUTH FLORIDA (6-1) at Connecticut (6-1): The critical play in UConn’s win last week vs. Louisville came when Huskies return man Larry Taylor took a punt back 74 yards for a TD.
The only problem: he signaled for a fair catch on the play. And of course, the crack squad Big East officiating crew blew the call:
Photo: via snickerling at scout.com
There’s no possible way UConn can undo the karmic retribution that is coming their way.
3 points: USC (6-1) at OREGON (6-1): Oregon’s pretty tough to beat at home, or so I’m told.
2 points: West Virginia (6-1) at RUTGERS (5-2): Rutgers owes WVU for last year’s loss in Morgantown. Plus, Scarlet Knight coach Greg Schiano might possibly be a closet homicidal axe murderer with all his sideline wood chopping antics. In fact, I’m convinced of it.
1 point: Michigan State (5-3) at IOWA (3-5): Big Ten crap game of the week. I think this might decide 4th or 5th place in the conference. Fun times!
At this point, I’m glad this is just for kicks and I don’t have any real cash on the line.
Because if I did, I would have thrown myself in front of an oncoming tractor trailer long ago.
The thing is, I think a lot of people probably feel exactly the same about this crazy, convoluted football season.Nothing – and I mean nothing – has really gone according to plan this year.
For instance look at what happened to the top 3 teams over the past week:
Then No. 1 LSU lost at no. 17 Kentucky
The ink wasn’t even dry on the column where I wrote that LSU was very, very good and that “they were, without a doubt, the top team in the country.”
I need to stop writing that crap.Because it always comes back to haunt me.
Then No. 2 California lost at home to OregonState
Granted, Cal had to play their no. 2 QB in this game because starting QB Nate Longshore was injured.
Still, this is a pretty ridiculous loss.With USC inexplicably getting upset by Stanford a week before, Cal was is the driver’s seat in the PAC-10 race.All they had to do was take care of business against a not-so-good OregonState team and move on.
USC is officially off the hook.Plus, with the way other top teams keep losing, it is entirely conceivable (gulp) to see them get back in the national title race.Damn it all.
Soon-to-be-dropping No. 2 South Florida lost at Rutgers
The party was going to come to an end sooner or later.
Plus, this might confirm that Piscataway is, in fact, one of the toughest road venues for ranked teams to pull out a win (see: No. 3 Louisville’s loss last year).
Anyway, I’ve come to the conclusion that I should expect the unexpected this college football season.Too bad it’s taken me eight weeks to realize the folly of my ways.
That’s a roundabout way of saying that I went 3-7 on the picks last week.
Taking into account the National League games yesterday, Steve Phillips is a whopping 16% more accurate than our trusty New Era. Being that The Hat was not at all accurate, that means Phillips is 16% accurate following game 1's. Obviously, this will change as the series' progress, but we feel we owe it to interested parties to keep you apprised of progress.
The following stats were taken into account (and calculated via STATS.com), and teams were ranked accordingly:
Steve Phillips hit a cool .500 on New York teams playoff chances. While it's been well- documented that he predicted the Yanks missing out, he did foreshadow a Mets collapse (albeit he thought they would squeak in). People probably thought he was nuts on both accounts, and turns out, (since we are feeling generous) we'll say they were only half right. He's only half nuts.
This morning he announced his confidence picks on Mike and Mike.
We have come to the realization that if you are listening to Phillips soothsay, you're probably also taking fantasy advice based on what Peter King thinks he thinks he thinks, and gambling advice from a sports guy who can't outpick his wife and a guy named Hammerin' (obviously based on the night before his picks, given his losing record week in and week out).
So, since Bristol frowns upon blogs and "expert" accountability, our blog is going to hold the MLB expert accountable. Take a gander at Phillips' thoughts on Greenie's blog.
Let's see if Phillips can shake his inconsistency.
What we've decided to do is pick the teams randomly out of a hat based on the same "confidence" categories to see how the random picks jive against Phillips' as the playoffs roll on.
We will monitor some basic statistics throughout the playoffs to see how accurate Phillips' and the hat's picks turnout to be.
Here's the breakdown:
ED. NOTE: This morning, YFTS' chief pointed out that while Greenie's site had the Yankees over the Angels, while the Yankees are actually playing the Indians. It must've be a typo as he noted in the commentary: "I think the Cleveland Indians are going to upset the New York Yankees."
Greenie has since fixed his site.
The amended hat picks: Red Sox over Angels, Yankees over Indians.
Says the chief: "You know, I would chalk it up as a silly error, if it weren't for the fact that his entire profession is based on this stuff. Or if i had chalk."
To put it lightly, I’m still in a bit of shock over the precipitous fall from grace that has befallen the Louisville Cardinals football program.
I don’t know how many times in college football history a program goes from 12-1, winning the Orange Bowl, and a top-10 national ranking … to suddenly dropping 2 of your first 4 games (one as a 37 point favorite at home), giving up close to 40 points a game and racking up more personal fouls than were committed all last year.
At the beginning of this season, people were confident that this team would again compete for the Big East title. Funny how things can change so quickly! Right now, a 5-7 record looks very generous for this bunch.
Suffice it to say, the atmosphere around the program is downright toxic right now. It looked like Veterans Stadium’s heyday on Saturday, with insults and objects being hurled onto the field and fans fighting each other to the death in the parking lot. To think that the entire city would be burned down by an angry mob is not an overstatement after watching that display this past weekend.
On top of everything else that is happening on the field, reports came out late yesterday that star-crossed linebacker Willie Williams has been dismissed for the team for trying to scarf down a bag of marijuana after being pulled over by Louisville’s finest earlier this week.
You might remember Willie Williams during his recruitment out of high school. After a recruiting visit to Florida in which he set off fire extinguishers in his hotel and allegedly and inappropriately groped a girl at a bar, it was revealed that he had already tallied 11 or 12 arrests on charges ranging from burglary to assault. I guess this would be lucky number 13, right?
Predictably, all this negativity coming out of the Louisville football program is destroying my ability to competently play Pick-Em. I went a disastrous 4-6 last week. That is inexcusable, and the Rev’s wife is threatening to take over the picks if I can’t get my act together.
I just keep reminding myself - basketball season is just a few weeks away.
HHR took a beating on last week's picks, going a meager 5 and 5. Auburn – thanks for the 6 turnovers at home. Georgia – thanks for bringing Steve Spurrier back to relevancy. And Michigan – you're dead to me.
So for this week's slate, HHR is looking for a big bounce back. Here we go: (Winning team in caps)
10 points: LOUISVILLE (2-0) at Kentucky (2-0) – Armed with an explosive offense, UK enters this rivalry game at home with sky-high expectations of knocking off the 9th ranked Cardinals. However, U of L has an explosive offense of their own – through two games, the Cards lead all Division I teams in virtually every major offensive statistic category. This could boil down to an offensive shootout with the winner being determined by which team scores last. The Cards have a decided edge with QB Brian Brohm under center, however, and he looks primed to finish his Cardinal career 4-0 against the rival Wildcats.
9 points: BYU (1-1) at Tulsa (2-0) – BYU has looked very strong to start the year, dismantling Arizona in Week 1 and nearly upsetting UCLA on the road last week. The Cougars will roll big in this one against an overmatched opponent.
8 points: Pittsburgh (2-0) at MICHIGAN STATE (2-0) – Pitt and Dave Wannstedt's moustache invade East Lansing this week, but they will be up for a big test against Michigan State. Sparty is off and running under new coach Mark D'Antonio, and it's not a stretch to say that State is the best team in the state of Michigan this year.
7 points: Boston College (2-0) at GEORGIA TECH (2-0) – This is probably not the marquee matchup the ACC had in mind when they raided the Big East for teams a couple years back. Along with Clemson, BC and Tech may be the best of the bunch in the ACC, so the winner of this game will have an early leg up on claiming the conference championship.
6 points: USC (2-0) at Nebraska (2-0) – Don't see Nebraska pulling the upset. Especially with Bill Callahan calling the plays. I hear he's though of fondly in Oakland.
5 points: Tennessee (1-1) at FLORIDA (2-0) – How many more of these can Phil Fulmer lose before he's run out of town? I say two.
4 points: FLORIDA STATE (1-1) at Colorado (1-1) – FSU would probably stand an even better chance if they let Grandpa Bowden continue to sleep on his sofa and left for Colorado without him.
3 points: Arkansas (2-0) at ALABAMA (2-0) – Conventional wisdom says that the Razorbacks should walk out of Tuscaloosa winners. But Nick Saban is Lucifer himself, so I have to think that will give Alabama a slight edge at home. Tide rolls, Hell celebrates.
2 points: Notre Dame (0-2) at MICHIGAN (0-2) – Ties can't happen in college football, so someone has to win this game. Definitely take the under. Wolverines 6, ND 5. What a mess.
1 point: Ohio State (2-0) at WASHINGTON (2-0) – My gut tells me the Bucks are going to leave Seattle with a loss in this one. The Huskies have been playing exceptionally well through two games, knocking off woeful Syracuse (who should immediately fire Greg Robinson) on the road and ranked Boise State at home.
Before the HHR boys divulge our picks, here's our buddy, The Chief, from Your Fantasy Team Sucks gives us his division-by-division breakdown and playoff picks...
(division winners marked with *)
NFC North
*Bears - Purely because of their D. Packers - Brett will be on fumes this year, I'd rather be running on premium fumes than regular gas. It's the difference between a guinness fart and and a taco bell fart. Vikings - A Taco Bell fart that leaves a purple stripe. Lions - This is Jon Fucking Kitna's team, and he's taking it the only place he feels safe from the storm: the cellar.
NFC East
*Eagles - McNabb doesn't even need the leg he's rehabbing. He'll probably just break it off midway through the season and jam a metal pipe in there or something. He's bionic. The Team Tony Romo is On - Because according to everyone, he's the only person worth mentioning. Redskins - This feels about right. Giants - Brandon Jacobs is gonna make every fantasy owner cry. He was good at taking goal line touches. But he never really worked to get to the goal line, did he?
NFC South
*Saints – They are just too good. Bucs – Will randomly be better for no good reason. The part of No Good Reason will be played by Jeff Garcia. Panthers – They keep slipping a little every year. Falcons – Somewhere, Joey Harrington is looking at a playbook and thinking, "where's that INT route I was so good at?"
NFC West
*49ers – This feels weird. Rams – Stephen and the Bulge should be a buddy comedy. Seahawks – Shaun Alexander will only be disappointing whatever clown drafted him. The rest of us knew better, right? Cardinals – Matt Leinert will be just as good a father as he is a starting QB.
AFC North
Bengals – I think I hate every team in this division. So fine, uhhh Bengals will win. Steelers – Back to form, but not their year. Steely McBeam is responsible. Ravens – I am so unsold on this team. Cleveland – The Frye Era will be terrible – all 2.5 weeks of it. Enter Brady the Lady Quinn.
AFC East
*Patriots – They are magical. Dolphins – Crazy pick here, but I gotta feeling. Plus I need to separate myself from my peers. Jets – Not a great situation at any major starting position. Bills – Losman, dude. He's studying with Harrington I bet.
AFC South
*The Team with that Manning Guy on it – I can't remember his name, but I heard a reference to a monkey off his back or something. I'll just guess that I was told Manning got off on a monkey riding bareback. I'm pretty sure that's what I wanted to hear. Jaguars – Rawwwr! Texans – Think the QB will have wished he stayed in Atlanta just one more year? Titans – leaking oil. Vince Young can't scramble on every play, can he?
AFC West
*Broncos – Always have a ridiculous smaller running back who gains 1,000+ yds Chargers – LT and Rivers both great, but who else is? Chiefs – Awkward Silence Goes Here. Awkward Silence then bitch slapped by Herm Edwards. Raiders – Culpepper to Moss almost happened again if the receiver hadn't left to the Pats. It would be like watching my grandparents play catch. Old people are funny sometimes. "Give me back my teeth!" they yell. They're so precious.
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Wildcard: Chargers, Steelers, Packers, Rams
Conference Winners: Pats (Over Broncs), Saints (Over Eagles) Superbowl: PATS WIN, PATS WIN
And Tom Brady celebrates by getting everyone pregnant.
After bruising assumptions of the NFL Defensive Player of the Year being able to slowdown a Boldin-less offense and Carson Palmer being able to throw a football, I am coming back like a spider monkey to make this weekend's picks.
