The Cynic’s Guide to College Football: Big 12(10) Winners and Losers

Well, after much wailing and gnashing of teeth about the impending Armageddon of conference realignment, the bomb has finally dropped and we’re left with, well, pretty much what we already had. Nebraska moved to the Big 10. Colorado and (reportedly) Utah will be heading to the Pac-10. And Mountain West teams will soon be heading to the Smurf Turf of Boise State. But other than that, it all turned out to be much ado about nothing. But that doesn’t mean we can’t engage still in a little snap judgment. With that, here are (in no particular order) the Big 12(10) Winners and Losers in the expansion fiasco.

WINNERS

1. Texas. The big winners in all of this. Love ‘em or hate ‘em, it’s hard not to respect the piece of Machiavelliangenius that Texas just pulled off. The Longhorns successfully managed to dupe the Pac-10, (most of) the rest of the Big 12 and the national sports media. And what did they get?

• A potential new TV deal that will pay them even more.
• Nine other schools now completely at the Longhorns’ mercy.
• Making the five schools that didn't have a BCS conference invite sign over their share of the Nebraska and Colorado buyout money.
• An even greater revenue disparity to their benefit.
• Their own TV network.
  
• A conference schedule that will, in all likelihood, put them just one game away from a shot at the national title every year.

In other words, everything they wanted from the beginning and then some. Rob Oller of the Columbus Dispatch put it best: “No one can say Horns never play anyone. They just played everyone.”

Forget the World Series of Poker. DeLoss Dodds is the real Texas Hold ‘Em Champion.

2. The Big 12 Teams Not Named Texas (Short-Term). If Dan Beebe can pull off his miracle TV deal he claims he can get, the TV package for all the schools will grow significantly. More importantly, the remaining Big 12 schools that didn’t have BCS conference invites are spared the indignity of having to beg the Mountain West or the MAC for membership.

3. The Big 10. They add one of the most successful programs in NCAA history that brings in big TV numbers. They finally get a conference championship game for a big money payday. And, by not jumping the gun to super-conference status right now, they leave themselves some wiggle room for Notre Dame future expansion.

4. Nebraska. Tom Osborne proved to be prophetic. Whether you agree with his opinion of them or not, it’s true that everything he lamented in the conference—the shifting of power to Texas, the unequal revenue distribution, the lack of a Big 12 network, etc.—not only will continue under the new Big 12, but appear to be getting even worse. For good or bad, the culture of the conference simply isn’t what it once was. Nebraska had become an outsider in its own conference and the move to the Big Ten was a natural one. Yes, the extra money ($22-$25 million instead of the $10 million they made in the Big 12) and the chance to leave Texas behind are nice, but perhaps even more important the move gives the Cornhuskers the stability and egalitarian culture lacking in the Big 12.

“What can I say, I TRIED to warn them.”

5. Chip Brown, Orangebloods.com. Yes, it seems a little slimy when a site trolling for subscribers and serving as a mouthpiece for the biggest player in all this is the one breaking the stories. And, sure, those stories weren’t always accurate (he broke both the report that Texas was joining the Pac-10 and that Texas was staying with the Big 12). But over the last week, he’s had ESPN eating out of his hand and become a household name with football geeks waiting on pins and needles for his next Tweet.

What do Chip’s sources say today?

6. Pot dealers. When Colorado and California get together for their first Pac-10 meeting, there may not be enough dope, tie dye or Phish cover bands to go around.

Tailgating in Boulder

7. Stewart Mandel, Sports Illustrated. The man predicted Nebraska’s move—three years ago.

8. The Red River Rivalry. With Nebraska out of the picture and no conference championship game, the annual Oklahoma/Texas shootout becomes a de facto conference title game and very likely a play-in game for a BCS title shot.

One of the biggest games in college football gets even bigger. Plus it has corn dogs.

9. T. Boone Pickens. Without having to compete with Phil Knight, Pickens can maintain his status as the biggest spender in the conference.

Lord Boone mingling with the commoners.

10. Arizona and Arizona State. Under the proposed Pac-10 expansion discussions, the Wildcats and Sun Devils would have been put in a western division with the six new schools from the Big 12. In other words, they would have to play Texas and Oklahoma every year. Now they can breathe a sigh of relief and still hold on to that pipe dream of making it back to the Rose Bowl
someday. Plus, Bob and Mike Stoops don't have to worry about those awkward family reunions.

LOSERS

1. The Big 12 Teams Not Named Texas (Long-Term). This whole process showed one thing. Texas is the king, and everybody else in the conference exists for the sole purpose of doing the Longhorns bidding. If there was any doubt about who the top program in college athletics is, it’s over now. While the smaller schools in the conference are breathing a sigh of relief right now, I wouldn’t get too comfortable. The only reason the Big 12 exists today is because, right now, it is in Texas’ best interest. But the Longhorns won’t commit to anything long term (another reason Nebraska wanted out—UT refused to commit to anything past 2016), so the conference may be right back in this same position a few years from now when the new TV deal runs out. Texas is looking out for Texas. Period. And if the revenue doesn’t come in like projected or they think they can cut a better deal somewhere else, the rest of the Big 12 will all be scrambling for new homes.

Help, help, I’m being repressed!

2. Missouri. The Tigers have had their bags packed for months, not even trying to conceal their love affair with the Big 10. So to get stranded at the altar in favor of Nebraska had to sting quite a bit. Plus, they’re now stuck with a new TV deal where the revenue disparity will be even bigger than before and they have to play both Texas and Oklahoma every year. While they have to hold out hope that the Big 10 may expand somewhere down the line, the uncertainty of their immediate future has to have Mizzou hating life.

“I want to go to the Big Ten THIS much.”

3. Colorado’s Short-Term Future. Colorado tried to get ahead of the curve by jumping to the Pac-10, expecting the Big 12 to dissolve behind them. Because it didn’t, the Buffs are now on the hook for approximately $9 million over the next two years in lost revenue they owe back to the Big 12 as punishment for leaving.

And you thought CU fans were upset when they couldn’t come up with the money to buy out Dan Hawkins.

4. Oklahoma’s Self-Respect. The Sooners’ marching band is called the Pride of Oklahoma. After this week’s developments, they may have to rethink that. For some inexplicable reason, OU Athletic Director Joe Castiglione kept finding ways to reiterate the fact that the Sooners would go wherever Texas went. While that move might (and I emphasize might) have been in OU’s best interest (at least in the short term), did it really help to paint the Sooners into a corner like that, take all other options off the table and basically admit that OU has become the Longhorns’ little sister?

C’mon, Joe. You guys are better than that.

5. Journalism. I, for one, will never trust any future article with the line “Sources close to the program say . . .” again. There was so much misinformation and outright deception going on that journalistic integrity was the first casualty in the Great Expansion Wars of 2010. And if someone wasn’t breaking incorrect stories, then someone else was running with that information and claiming it as their own.

I’m looking at you, Joe Schad.

6. Brett Favre. For the first time in years, the annual summer “will he or won’t he” retirement talk hasn’t been the biggest offseason story in football.

"Hello? Will somebody pay attention to me now?"

7. Big 12 Relevance. For some time, the Big 12 North division has largely been an afterthought. The winner of the Oklahoma/Texas game would go on, win the conference championship and then go on to the BCS. But there was always at least a little bit of intrigue, given the history of title game upsets (Texas in ’96, A&M in 98, Kansas State in ’03, etc.) and Nebraska’s recent resurgence. All that, however, goes out the window with the loss of
the conference title game and no real competition for the Longhorns and Sooners. Barring some huge upsets, 9 of the league’s 10 teams will effectively be irrelevant on the college football scene by mid-October.

8. Dan Beebe’s Math. I took calculus in high school, and then clepped out my college math requirements. So I haven’t studied math in . . . let’s see, minus 18, times the circumference, carry the one . . . a lot of years. But I still can’t figure out how Big 12 Commissioner Dan Beebe figures that subtracting one of your better TV draws (Nebraska), scrapping a conference championship game and losing the Denver media market somehow adds up to almost doubling the conference’s TV contract.

9. The Pac-10. Here they thought they had Texas, the biggest fish in the college football sea, coming aboard. All they had to do was take their in-state rivals, Texas A&M and Texas Tech, with them. But then word got out that Baylor had friends in high places and that some Texas legislators were threatening to submarine the deal if Baylor wasn’t included in the package. So the Pac-10 tried to call their bluff, issuing a pre-emptive invitation to Colorado. However, the plan backfired and, instead of getting Texas as the jewel in their conference crown, they’re stuck with an underachieving Colorado program that just got hit with NCAA scholarship reductions.

10. Jerry Jones. Jerry had just secured the Big 12 Championship game for his new Taj Mahal in Dallas through 2013. Now it appears that there won’t be a title game past 2010.

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The Cynic’s Guide to College Football: Big 10 Expansion, or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Super-Conference

In recent weeks, there has been a lot of discussion about conference expansion and realignment. At the top of that list is the Big 10’s expressed desire to expand to 14 or 16 teams. While much has been discussed (Notre Dame pipe dream, anyone?), the three most common—and logical—potentials to join the Big 10 are Missouri, Nebraska and Rutgers.

After a great deal of thorough analysis over some frosty beverages, I’ve come to one carefully-reasoned conclusion—this is a marriage made in football heaven and everybody involved would have to be a complete freakin’ idiot to not pull the trigger on this deal.

Although somehow “Big 14” doesn’t have the same ring to it.

First, let’s look at what those three schools would gain from joining the Big 10.

Academics—Some colleges still have this crazy notion that universities exist for purposes other than supporting football teams (strange, I know). Missouri, Nebraska and Rutgers—along with all 11 members of the current Big 10—are members of the American Association of Universities. If you’re known by the company you keep, AAU represents the cool kids in academic circles. Only 63 colleges and universities are members, but they receive 57% of all federal research dollars (more than $17 billion). 70% of U.S. Nobel Prize winners have been affiliated with one of these schools. In other words, the Big 10, especially with the addition of these three schools, would have a whole lot more in the way of academic funding and prestige than the Big 12 or Big East can offer.

It’s no Heisman, but it’ll do.

Equality—Over the course of the Big 12’s history, Nebraska has been on the losing end of more than one 11-1 votes. And others in the Big 12 North have quietly grumbled about the power in the conference moving south. The current state of the Big 12 is very simple—whatever Texas wants, Texas gets. A TV contract that heavily benefits the big name schools? You got it. Moving the Big 12 title game to Texas permanently? No problem. The list goes on. In the Big 12, the rich (Texas and Oklahoma) keep getting richer. The Big 10 is much more egalitarian in its structure, with all members treated more or less equally. (For example, they are the only conference in which all teams share BCS money evenly).

Clap if you’re a fan of the Big 12

Money—The Big One. Let’s be honest, none of this talk would even be on the table if there wasn’t money—and a lot of it—at stake. Under their current football TV contracts, Nebraska and Missouri each pull in approximately $10 million annually, while Rutgers gets about $4 million. If the Big 10 expands, each school would get in the neighborhood of $22 to $25 million. I’m not great at math, but even I can crunch those numbers.

Warren Buffett is a Nebraska fan. And he knows a good deal when he sees one.

So what does the Big 10 gain from these three extra schools?

Money—Yes, it all comes back to money again. Don’t act surprised. With these three schools in the mix, you pull in the New York/New Jersey, Saint Louis and Kansas City media markets. And while Nebraska may be small in terms of population, it is a traditional power that routinely brings in the big TV viewership numbers appealing to advertisers. In other words, you’re going to have a whole lot of eyes watching these games. They way I understand the Big Ten TV contract, they get 10 cents per cable subscriber in non-Big 10 areas, but approximately 70 cents per subscriber in Big 10 markets. Take that net 60 cents per subscriber difference times the number of cable subscribers in New York City, New Jersey, Missouri and Nebraska and you’re talking about a pretty good chunk of change. And that doesn’t even include the revenue from a potential conference title game, additional bowl bids, etc.

The Big 10 Network gets a whole lot Bigger. And Tennier.

History—To be sure, the Big 10 is not lacking for history or storied programs. But the addition of Rutgers (played in the very first college football game in 1869) and Nebraska (5 national titles and a laundry list of national award winners) certainly wouldn’t hurt the conference’s record books.

Rutgers 6, Princeton 4. You can’t get more old school than that.

Other Sports—While the focus of most of the expansion talk has understandably been on football, Missouri, Nebraska and Rutgers bring a lot to the table in other sports. For example, Missouri would be an immediate favorite for the baseball title. Nebraska volleyball would have a natural rival in Penn State as Final Four fixtures. And Rutgers women’s basketball has become a perennial contender.

Nebraska and Penn State have won 6 of the last 11 national championships in women’s volleyball, including the last three straight by PSU.

Are their downsides? Sure. Higher travel costs. The (potential) end of some traditional rivalries. Possibly fewer recruiting inroads in Texas for MU and NU. Some restructuring and rescheduling of the current Big 10. But are any of those reasons enough to say no to this deal? Absolutely not. At the end of the day, there’s really no good reason for this deal NOT to happen.

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The Cynic's Guide to College Football, Week 10

Welcome to mid-November, when the BCS vs. Playoff whining begins in earnest, coaches’ pink slips fill the air, the fan natives start getting restless and Rich Rodriguez and Bobby Bowden start rehearsing their duet of “I’ll Be Home for Christmas.” Only a few weeks left for those mediocre teams (and there are a ton of them this year) to get bowl eligible or help solidify their positions in a better bowl game.

So with that—and visions of Thanksgiving turkey and football already dancing in our heads—let’s look back at the week that was in bad football.

Anchors Aweigh for Weis

Saturday was a big day for Notre Dame haters. And those who love America. I mean, how can you root against the Naval Academy? Why don’t you just piss on the flag and join Al Qaeda while you’re at it? OK, so maybe that’s a bit of an overstatement, but lost in all the “Charlie Weis extra wide hot seat” talk was the fact that Navy has now won in South Bend twice in a row. Maybe Navy can provide a destroyer to help Charlie sail off into the sunset.

Thanks to all our brave servicemen and women who keep us safe from terrorism. And Notre Dame BCS bowl games.

Fire the Waterboy!

When did Bob Stoops go from “can’t win the big ones” to “can’t win the medium-sized ones?” To be sure, the Sooners had a lot going against them this week, including a freakish number of injuries to key offensive players. And I don’t want to take anything away from Nebraska's defense—I freely admit my huge mancrush on Ndamukong Suh. But you’re telling me the Sooners offense, which is still loaded with blue chip recruits and which spent most of the night in Nebraska territory, could only manage three points, three missed field goals and five interceptions? Especially rough considering they were competing against a Husker offense that was 1-for-14 on 3rd down conversions and had more punts (11) than points (10) or first downs (7). Sooners fans are notoriously prone to hyperbole when it comes to proclaiming every loss “the worst coaching job ever.” And, even with OU’s bizarre injury situation, those voices are only getting louder in
Norman.

When OU goes to the Sun Bowl, will U.S. Customs search the Sooner Schooner on the way back from Juarez?

And the Meek Shall Inherit the Earth

Colorado coming from behind to beat Texas A&M? Baylor (yes, that Baylor) putting a beatdown on Missouri—in Columbia? Kansas State leading their division. I officially give up trying to figure out the Big 12.

Don’t try to explain it. You’ll only hurt yourself.

Voting Boise Off the Island

Note to Boise State: if you’re trying to make your case for a BCS at-large spot, struggling against 3-6 Lousiana Tech (Boise only led by 2 with 8 minutes left) is not the way to do it. For all you “a win’s a win” and “undefeated is undefeated” folks out there, I’m sorry to disappoint you, but style points matter. The BCS isn’t about fairness—it’s about money and TV ratings. Period. It’s no different from any other TV show in that regard. Boise may be freakin’ Masterpiece Theater for all most people know. But the BCS is afraid of anything “artsy”, so they’re going to go with the safe picks—American Idol, reality shows featuring B-list celebrities . . . and a 2-loss Penn State.

Hey Simon, should Fox show a Boise bowl game instead of an American Idol re-run?

I love college football as much as anybody. Still, it’s easy to overemphasize its importance. Last week’s events at Fort Hood are what really matter. Our solders in Iraq and Afghanistan are what really matter. The freedoms we enjoy because of them are what really matter. So find a way to thank a vet today. Whether it’s buying one a cup of coffee or, like the North Texas Nebraskans alumni group, raising money to buy tickets for local soldiers to come to the game, make sure you tell the active and former military personnel you meet “thank you.” On Veterans' Day and every day.

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The Cynic's Guide to College Football, Week 9

It's kind of appropriate that tomorrow is Halloween, because we're entering the Dead Zone. You know--that time of year when the World Series is over (for all six people outside the Philly metro area who actually cared) and the unmitigated evil of the NBA is upon us, but see-who-can-find-the-remote-and-hit-the-mute-button-before-Dick-Vitale-can-talk season (also known as college hoops) hasn't gotten here yet.

Scary, ain't it?

It's hard to believe that we're in the homestretch of the college football season. Everyone is nearly two-thirds of the way through the season and things are getting weirder by the week. With that, I give you your weekly dose of the Dark Side of college football. Happy Halloween everyone. And don’t forget to vote!

1. To Burn or Not to Burn

On paper at the start of the season, last Thursday’s West Virginia/Auburn game looked like it could have serious national title implications. After all, the two teams were the preseason #8 and #10 teams in the country. Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Last Thursday’s game between these two was really just about saving face. West Virginia was able to do so, rolling off 31 unanswered points, en route to a 34-17 win that bumped their record to 5-2. They’re still very much in the mix for a BCS bid in the weakened Big East. But how bad are things for Auburn? So bad that West Virginia fans were wondering if beating the Tigers was even worth burning a couch over.

Warning: Contents are flammable.

2. Whodathunkit

Which is more improbable: that, nine weeks into the season, an 81-year old Joe Paterno has a legit shot at his first undefeated season since a then-22 year old Kerry Collins led the Nittany Lions to a 12-0 mark in 1994? Or that a now-36 year old Collins is an NFL starting quarterback and is leading the only undefeated team in the country?

The odds were this long!

3. The Joke’s On Kentucky

A week ago I wrote about Kentucky offensive coordinator Joker Phillips and wondered how he got his nickname. Well after seeing some of the Wildcats’ offensive performance in their 63-5 loss at Florida last weekend, now I think I know. To be fair, Kentucky was battling a ton of injuries. But three offensive points?

The Joker enjoying his trip to Florida. The same can't be said for the rest of the Wildcat faithful.

4. Can Drug Use Be Justified?

Fifteen North Texas football players reportedly tested positive for some kind of drug use. But let’s be honest—if you played for UNT, you were 0-8, had given up less than 40 points only once this season and had been outscored 400-135, you’d probably need something to take the edge off as well.

UNT's backup long snapper.

5. OK, who had October 27 in the Pool?

Look, we all knew the end was coming for Tyrone Willingham. But getting fired after losing to the team you were at previously? Talk about adding insult to injury.

6. You Can’t Buy Votes . . . But I’ve Got Two on the Fifty.

With the election just around the corner, I had to throw in one story with a political bent—earlier this week, former Ohio state representative John Widowfield pled guilty to two counts of using campaign money to buy Ohio State football tickets—and then scalp them. He had reportedly made nearly $14,000 in profits between 2003 and 2006, but resigned from the Legislature in May when their Ethics Committee began investigating.

Free market entrepreneur? Evil bloodsucking parasite? Or your next governor?

7. Iowa State is the New Baylor

The reports of the Big 12 North’s resurgence have been greatly exaggerated. After last year’s great runs by Kansas and Missouri, lots of people were saying that the Big 12 North had finally turned a corner and would be on an equal footing with the South. Missouri had national title and Heisman hopes. Kansas had no reason to believe they couldn’t be back in the BCS. This was supposed to be the year that Dan and Cody Hawkins moved Colorado up to the next level. And Bo Pelini was going to get Nebraska turned around. Well, those dreams may have to wait a while. Missouri’s title hopes are down the drain, followed closely by the Chase Daniel for Heisman campaign. KU already has three times as many losses as it did all of last season. If anything, the Buffaloes have actually taken a step backwards. Nebraska, while showing signs of life, is also showing that rebuilding projects don’t happen overnight. The “Fire Ron Prince” bandwagon is picking up steam at Kansas State. And Iowa State fans, modest as their expectations are, have still been disappointed by the Gene Chizik era. To date, the North is just 2-10 against the South this season (Nebraska over Baylor and Kansas State over Texas A&M).

That said, I wouldn’t encourage Oklahoma and Texas fans to get too comfortable. A decade ago, Nebraska, Kansas State and Colorado ruled the Big 12 and fans of those teams thought that’s the way it would always be. But then strange things happened. People like Tom Osborne and Bill Snyder retired. People like Bob Stoops, Mack Brown, Gary Barnett and Steve Pederson were hired. And just like that, the pendulum swung south. But believe me, it can—and sooner or later will—swing back north just as quickly.

The Big 12 (and Thanksgiving--not Halloweeen--weekend) the way God intended it.

However, in 2008 . . .

8. Abandon Hope, All Ye Who Enter the Big 12 South

While I’m not sure if this says more about these teams or the overall mediocre state of college football right now, has there ever been any division more dominant than the Big 12 South right now? You could make a pretty solid argument that the four teams playing the best football in the country right now all reside in the same division. After successive victories over OU, Missouri and Oklahoma State, there’s no doubt that Texas is legit. Oklahoma State certainly acquitted itself well enough on Saturday to show it belongs in the mix. Oklahoma hung 55 points in the first half this weekend (although only three in the second, and their defense is an issue). And Texas Tech, the team with the most question marks coming in, hung 63 on the road against a good Kansas team. No disrespect intended to Penn State or Alabama but, if my job depended on winning just one game, I’m not so sure I wouldn’t choose to play one of them instead of taking on anyone from the Big 12’s Murderer’s Row.